More of the same in my mid-week bets: I predicted that two matches — Blackpool v Man United and Liverpool v Fulham — would be closer than the odds makers, an observer would probably say they were closer, but in the end, the expected team won.
The Blackpool v Man United game was particularly painful. Blackpool was up 2-0 at half time. It seemed very likely that an upset would occur. Indeed, the odds of a Man United comeback at half time were 15 to 1. But they did come back. Just as they did the in their previous match, and won the game.
Liverpool v Fulham was a close match that ended up 1-0 on an own-goal by Fulham. That is surprising for Fulham, which has had better than expected defense all season.
It's important to keep reminding yourself: "in statistics as in art, never fall in love with your model." That said, we still need more data points to see anything statistical significant.
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