Ahead of Man City's match with Bayern Munich this week, I watched Bayern's match in the Bundesliga with Bayer Leverkusen, hoping to get a sense of what will be in store for City.
Style of Play
Bayern most reminded me of the Man United of last season.
It wasn't just that they have at least a couple of players that have been linked with Man United in the past (right back, Lahm, and goalkeeper, Neuer). Nor was it the fact that the referee was obviously in Bayern's employ, handing out 4 yellow cards to Bayer Leverkusen versus 1 to Bayern for very similar tackles. It wasn't even the dive that would have made Nani proud. (The offender was actually screaming before contact occurred, if there was any contact at all.) No, it was mostly their style of play.
Like United last season, they played in a surprisingly predictable way. In fact, in much the same predictable way.
First, they are fast on the counter, always moving quickly when they gain possession.
Second, nearly always, they attack down the flanks. If the winger can get past his man, he will cross in front of goal for a striker to tap it in. At least two thirds of the attacks I watched were of exactly this form. If the winger cannot get past, he will pass back into the center. Most likely, this is passed right back to the winger, a quick 1-2 to get past the defender and repeat as before (cross into the box). If that doesn't work, the winger can cut inside and let the fullback overlap and cross. Or he can pass the ball back to the midfielders / defenders to start over.
Only twice did I actually see shots from a central area. And in both of those cases, again, the attacks originally started on the flank.
In other words, much like United last season, even though they have a world class set of attackers, at least you have a pretty good idea of how they will come at you.
One might raise the objection to my comparison that Bayern do not play the same formation as Man United (4-2-3-1 versus 4-4-2). But like I suggested in my last post, this is mostly splitting hairs. United do not play with two up front either. Like United, Bayern play with one traditional winger (Ribery can cross with his left foot) and one inverted winger (Robben). And like United, they can play with either one or two holding midfielders.
Season So Far
Bayern Munich have had an incredible start to the Bundesliga season. After an initial 0-1 loss, they have won all 6 of their matches, scoring 19 goals and conceding none at all. In no match have they conceded more than 7 shots on goal, while they themselves have average 18 shots. Their goal difference after 7 matches is better than some of the famous Bayern sides of the past.
That said, I am reluctant to read too much into these results given that this is nearly the same team as last season, which struggled at times. In the match I watched, only the goalkeeper (Neuer) and the right fullback (Rafinha) were new to Bayern. And the little I have heard of Neuer's start so far said that he has been shaky.
They also have a new coach, of course. However, his reputation (as I understand it) is for being a more traditional German manager. In this case, that means that he would be less attacking and more defensive than his predecessor, van Haal. Hence, that does little to explain Bayern's incredible attack so far this season.
Expectations
Having described Bayern Munich as a team that plays like the title winning team of the Barclay's Premier League last season, a team that is rampaging through the current Bundesliga season, one would surely imagine that I will be predicting a tough night for Man City.
The odds makers too have Bayern Munich as the clear favorites.
Surprisingly, I feel differently. I am expecting a dominant performance from Man City.
Perhaps the reason is that, in the game I watched, Bayer Leverkusen were so poor. They barely put up a fight at all. Neither were Bayern Munich all that good either. Not only were they predictable, but also they didn't really seem to be playing especially well. Their passing wasn't extraordinarily accurate. Their finishing wasn't extraordinarily clinical.
Perhaps the reason is that, as I mentioned above, this is largely the same team as last season, which struggled for long periods. They do have a new coach, but as my comments in the past regarding Hodgson versus Dalglish have probably let on, I am skeptical that a manager can have much of an impact. Certainly, he has nowhere near as much as people like to think. And certainly, a manager cannot produce this sort of difference in a team in such a short period of time.
Perhaps it is the comparisons that are occurring in the German press with the legendary Bayern teams of the past, some now openly asking whether this Bayern team is the best of all time, that makes me so skeptical.
Unusually for me, I'm not sure that I really can articulate the reasons. Yet somehow, I'm expecting Man City to dominate this match. Whether the final score is 3-1 or 1-1 to City will depend on whether Manuel Neuer has another legendary performance. However, whatever the final score is, I am expecting there to be no question about which was the better team.
I may end up with a lot of egg on my face come tomorrow, especially if City have another nervous performance like they had against Napoli. But today, at least, I am not afraid of Bayern Munich.
