EPL Week 24 Fantasy Team

Feeding this week's games to my models, here is what I notice:

• Newcastle looks surprisingly likely to score.
  
  And with Andy Carroll out, goals are likely to come from Kevin Nolan or Joey Barton.
  
  
• Everton looks surprisingly unlikely to concede.
  
  This is, of course, because they are playing West Ham United. Everton have a pair of fullbacks, in Leighton Baines and Seamus Coleman, who are both attacking threats. And while Negative Football does not endorse such behavior, it is great for scoring fantasy points.
  
  
• Arsenal and Manchester United are both the most likely to score and least likely to concede.
  
  The problem with both teams is guessing where those goals will come from. There are simply too many scoring options in both teams' midfields to find a safe bet. On the other hand, there are some options at striker. Van Persie has been in incredible form recently, and he is Arsenal's sole striker, so he seems the safest option. From Manchester United, I picked Berbatov, even though he has been somewhat up-and-down, since Rooney's form is still questionable.
  
  That leaves a choice in defense from each team. From Manchester United, I went with Vidic simply because he is almost certain to play. From Arsenal, somewhat surprisingly, I chose Szczezny, mostly because none of the defenders look promising.
  
  
• Manchester City is also likely to score and nearly the least likely to concede.
  
  Manchester City presents similar problems in that they have lots of scoring options. However, Tevez up front is certainly the safest bet. In the midfield, Adam Johnson's form in the last game was incredible, but Silva is also a good choice since he appears to be healthy again and is likely to get at least an assist.
  
  
• Stoke is nearly as unlikely to concede as those above.
  
  Fulham is not far behind this, but Stoke looks even better. Huth is an easy choice here.
  

All of that adds up to the following lineup, a 4-3-3 formation.

• Keeper: Szczezny (ARS)
  
• Defense: Baines (EVE), Coleman (EVE), Vidic (MAU), Huth (STO)
  
• Midfield: Nolan (NEW), Barton (NEW), Silva (MAC)
  
• Strikers: van Persie (ARS), Berbatov (MAU), Tevez (MAC)
  

UPDATE: Ran some improved models. Here are the interesting changes:

• Manchester City no longer looks so likely to score. On the other hand, they are facing Darren Bent, who will be out to prove something. Perhaps best to stay away from this one.
  
  
• Chelsea looks unlikely to concede. Added to defense. This also frees up Manchester United for all offense.
  
  
• Blackburn look surprisingly likely to score.
  

That leads me to following lineup, another 4-3-3 formation.

• Keeper: Céch (CHE)
  
• Defense: Baines (EVE), Coleman (EVE), Cole (CHE), Bardsley (SUN)
  
• Midfield: Nolan (NEW), Fabregas (ARS), Pedersen (BLA)
  
• Strikers: van Persie (ARS), Berbatov (MAU), Rooney (MAU)