EPL Week 24 Bets

Two changes in methodology compared to last week. First, I've continued to improve my model (via techniques I will describe at a later date). Second, I also included my wife's model. Unlike me, she actually trained as a statistician. By comparing our two approaches, I get some amount of sensitivity estimation.

First, all of these long shots seem under valued:

• Wigam to win. 7% versus 26% in my model.
  
  
• West Ham to win. 15% versus 31% in my model.
  
  
• Birmingham to win or draw. 25% versus 56% in my model.
  

This may, of course, be evidence of the (alleged) general tendency of book makers to lower the odds (i.e., up the payout) on long shots because betters tend not to pick them. It may also be evidence of a general tendency to underestimate the amount of randomness in football matches. Or it could be that my models are just plain wrong. Time will tell...

Here is one more match that appears to be a long shot, according to the bookmakers:

• Bolton to win. 18% versus 33% in my model.
  
  The bookmakers have a draw with Chelsea at 62%. This at least reflects the fact that the quality of these teams is much closer than in the long shot matches above. However, a 62% chance of draw seems far too certain. My model has this at only 27%. Either team to win is more likely in my model.
  

Finally, there is one match where a draw seems more likely than the odds would suggest:

• NEW vs TOT to draw. 30% versus... 25% in my model.
  
  Actually, what my model suggests is a Newcastle win is more likely than the odds suggest. However, my model does not account for all the injuries at Newcastle. In particular, the loss of Andy Carroll reduces the odds of a Newcastle win. But on the other hand, this makes a draw more likely, so that is the position I've taken.
  

UPDATE: Fixed some of the numbers above after fixing a bug in my model.