EPL Week 23 Bets

According to my simple models, there are four EPL games next week where the odds are backward, that is, games where the book makers think one side is more likely to win but my models say the other side is more likely. Here they are:

1. West Brom vs. Blackpool: -125 +240 +350 (order: WBA draw BPL)
2. Stoke vs. Bolton: +115 +230 +230
3. Wigan vs. Fulham: +150 +180 +220
4. Sunderland vs. Newcastle: +120 +225 +225

There are two others that seem backward, but seem too risky for other reasons.

5. Man City vs. Wolves has the same odds as Chelsea vs. Blackburn at -350 +400 +1000. The book makers give worse odds to Arsenal over West Ham at -200 +300 +550. My model has Arsenal and Chelsea wins as more likely than a Man City win, although all three are likely.

I'm skipping out on this bet, though, because of a new variable: the arrival of Dzeko for Man City. He introduces a new attacking threat, so it's quite possible that Man City will start scoring more goals, which would make a Man City win more likely.

6. Liverpool vs Everton at -115 +330 +230 has Liverpool as the likely winner (53% chance of win). My models have the teams about equal with Everton ahead under some settings.

I'm skipping out on this bet because Liverpool are changing managers. It's hard to know how the team will react to the replacement of Hodgson by Danglish. If they react like Inter did to Leonardo this week, then a Liverpool win may very well be likely.

Predicting Everton performance is difficult in general. They seem to play better against "big teams" than anyone would guess. Is Liverpool currently a big team? Will Everton step up? I'm not sure.

UPDATE: Newcastle midfielder Tiote was just suspended for 3 games. That makes a bet in favor of Newcastle look less like a good idea.