Review of EPL Week 23 Bets

Here's how the bets went this week. We recommended upsets (draw or underdog winner) in 4 matches:

1. West Brom vs. Blackpool: 3 - 2 (loss)
2. Stoke vs. Bolton: 2 - 0 (loss)
3. Wigan vs. Fulham: 1 - 1 (win)
4. Sunderland vs. Newcastle: 1 - 1 (win)

These bets were all 45-60% odds, so winning two was expected. In the long term, we should expect to win 3 more often than the odds would predict, if in fact my models are more accurate. However, we can't say much from just 4 data points.

One reason for optimism, though, is that the WBA vs. BPL match seemed much closer than the odds predicted (which matches my model). It honestly seemed like it could have gone either way. WBA got the winner very late in the game, and even then BPL had a great chance to equalize again, though it did not come to pass.

That said, let's not give in to wishful thinking here. It's the actual results that matter. And we need more data points to say anything conclusive.

Our model also had things to say about two other matches:

5. Man City vs. Wolves: 4 - 3

The effect of Dzeko on this game was interesting. He did not score, but he removed pressure on Tevez, who then scored twice. City scored 4 all together, which is in line with what the odds say (as Chelsea and Arsenal actually scored fewer). City conceding 3 was not expected. They made some rare defensive errors.

6. Liverpool vs. Everton: 2 - 2

This match was very even overall and could have gone either way. That is in line with my model and not with the odds.

What can we learn from this week's results?

First, based on Liverpool's continued poor results, we get evidence for the null hypothesis that managers are not all that important. On the other hand, Inter's improved performance with Leonardo as manager is evidence of the opposite. On the other other hand, Inter are perhaps getting healthier, and of course, the models suggested they should have been winning these matches anyway.

Second, based on Everton's good performance even without Cahill, we get evidence for the null hypothesis that individual players are not all that important. On the other hand, the impact of Dzeko at City is evidence of the opposite.

As with our models, we will need more data to say anything definitive. We will look back at this later in the season.