EPL Week 28 Fantasy Team

Based on expected goals scored and conceded, here are the teams to look at this week:

• Offense: {Newcastle, Stoke, Aston Villa}, {Wolves, Blackpool}
  
• Defense: Man City, Liverpool
  
• Both: Man United
  

Those grouped together are roughly equivalent. Beyond that, the better choices are listed first.

As usual, these are based on my own predictions for scores. However, as noted before, we can also infer expected goals from the bookies' odds. Their predictions match mine for "defense" and "both". However, for "offense", they rate Man City as the most likely to score. Beyond Man City and Man U, they list all the teams I gave above, but with lower expectations. They also rate Everton as likely to score a reasonable number of goals. As usual, I will pick my team based on my own predictions.

Given that we have fewer choices in defense, it makes sense to start there. The best options from Liverpool are Martin Kelly and Pepe Reina. Then, we can take two City defenders. Noting that Kompany and Richards are both out, I chose Zabaleta and Kolarov. The latter is a nice option given that he will actually play in midfield. Another reasonable choice would be Boateng. Kolo Toure has more points, but Mancini has not been starting him recently.

That leaves one final defender to take from Man U. Vidic and Raphael are the most obvious choices. I picked the former.

Both Newcastle and Aston Villa give good options at strikers in Leon Best and Darren Bent, respectively. Stoke does not offer any great choices here. On the other hand, at midfield, Newcastle and Stoke offer good options in Joey Barton (or Kevin Nolan) and Etherington, respectively, while Aston Villa's options — Ashley Young or Stewart Downing — are not as great. Unfortunately, Etherington is still injured, and it is unclear whether he will play this weekend.

This leaves midfield with the fewest good choices, so we will need to use our final Man U player there. Nani is the obvious choice. The best choices for our last forward are Kevin Doyle or DJ Campbell, of which I picked the latter. With Etherington inured, I fancy Blackpool as even more likely to score. For the final midfield position, in addition to Young and Downing, we should consider Charlie Adam, but he is unfortunately suspended, so I will go with Downing.

This gives us the following 4-3-3 lineup:

• Forwards: Best (NEW), Bent (AST), Campbell (BPL)
  
• Midfield: Nani (MAU), Barton (NEW), Downing (AST)
  
• Defenders: Kelly (LIV), Zabaleta (MAC), Kolarov (MAC), Vidic (MAU)
  
• Keeper: Reina (LIV)
  

As captain, perhaps the safest choice on the face of it would be Nani, especially given that, as a midfielder, he gains points for Man U clean sheets. However, Man U often play very differently away from OT. I will make the unconventional choice and pick Leon Best, as Newcastle have been quite dangerous at home recently, as Arsenal discovered.

Finally, I'll be keeping an eye on Etherington. If he should become available, then I would swap out Charlie Adam for Etherington, whom I would also make captain given that they are facing West Brom and are at home.

UPDATE: Redid the line-up when I noticed that Etherington may not play.

UPDATE 2: Fixed again after discovering that Charlie Adam is suspended.