The best purely offensive choices are Everton and Arsenal. Both of these teams are playing against opponents (Blackpool and Newcastle) that are also expected to score goals, so these are not safe defensive options. Everton has only one obvious choice: Tim Cahill as striker. Arsenal's midfield often has too many good choices to make any of them safe. However, with Sami Nasri currently injured, Cesc Fabregas becomes an easy choice.
The best purely defensive choices are Aston Villa, Fulham, Tottenham, Bolton, Stoke, and Sunderland. Aston Vill is the most likely clean sheet, but they also have the fewest good choices. Fulham has many good choices for defender, but it will be harder for them to keep a clean sheet against a revitalized Aston Villa. I decided to hedge my bets by picking one defender from each of the italicized teams.
Finally, the teams that look the best both offensively and defensively are Man United, Man City, and Chelsea. Man United is a bit stronger offensively than defensively, while Man City and Chelsea are the reverse, according to the model. However, given Liverpool's recent run of form and new signings, I feel less confident about Chelsea's defense. One choice is easy however: since none of the defensive teams mentioned above have good options for goalie, I picked Joe Hart from Man City.
After choosing Tim Cahill, we are left with 2 strikers and 3 midfielders to choose from amongst Arsenal, Man United, Chelsea, and Man City.
Perhaps the safest bet this week for striker is Wayne Rooney. Even when he does not score goals, he gets assists, which are valuable from a striker. And of course, he found the net twice in the last game. For the other choice, I am split between Tevez and Torres, with the latter seeming likely to find the net on his Chelsea debut. This is pretty much a toss-up as each of them have potent strike partners that could also pick up goals. Ultimately, though, Tevez seems the safest bet because he too gets assists.
In midfield, the obvious choice from Man United is Nani. Park Ji Sung is also a reasonable choice, but it's hard to know if he will be in the starting lineup. From Chelsea, the best options are Malouda and Lampard. Choosing between those two is difficult, especially given that Lampard is Chelsea's penalty taker.
One option would be to choose both Malouda and Lampard. It is likely that at least one of them will be involved in a goal. Furthermore, that uses only one player from Manchester United, so I could then go back and add Vidic as a defender.
However, Liverpool's defense has improved considerably, so betting on Chelsea goals does not seem safe, while Man United is likely to ring up a high score against Wolverhampton. So instead, I'll pick Nani and, after flipping a coin, Malouda. This does leave the option of taking a Chelsea defender, but again I worry about the new form of Liverpool.
Here is the final lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Hart (MAC)
- Defenders: Collins (AST), Hangeland (FUL), Huth (STO), Bardsley (SUN)
- Midfielders: Fabregas (ARS), Malouda (CHE), Nani (MAU)
- Forwards: Cahill (EVE), Tevez (MAC), Rooney (MAU)
The final result is fairly standard in offense, despite all that analysis, but the defense is perhaps surprising.
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