EPL Title Predictions as of Week 27

If we can determine the probabilities for the outcome of every match, it is a fairly simple matter to predict the final results at the end of the season. Treating each match as independent, we can sum up the probabilities of achieving each number of points. Here are the expected values of the resulting distribution:

• 75.7 — Manchester United
  
• 72.4 — Arsenal
  
• 64.9 — Manchester City
  
• 64.3 — Chelsea
  
• 63.2 — Tottenham
  
• 54.5 — Liverpool
  
• 52.3 — Sunderland
  
• 50.5 — Bolton
  
• 50.2 — Newcastle
  
• 49.3 — Stoke
  
• 46.7 — Birmingham
  
• 45.7 — Everton
  
• 45.4 — Fulham
  
• 44.7 — Blackburn
  
• 44.4 — Aston Villa
  
• 43.4 — Blackpool
  
• 40.3 — West Brom
  
• 39.6 — Wolverhampton
  
• 39.1 — Wigan
  
• 38.0 — West Ham
  

We can see that there is not much movement from the current standings. In particular, this shows that the games in hand for various teams do not amount to much. This is likely because those most of those matches are between fairly evenly matched teams.

Keep in mind, of course, that all of the numbers above are simply expected values. The associated standard deviations are all between 3.9 and 4.5. So in effect, the race for the Champions League and relegation spots are both very much up in the air.

However, we can say a few things from this. Seeing City pass United would be an event nearly three standard deviations outside the mean, i.e., less than 1 chance in 100. Similarly, Liverpool will not take the Europa league spot. On the other hand, as City and Arsenal are separated by 7.5 points, there is a greater than 1 in 20 chance of City finishing ahead of Arsenal.