I'm doing some major on improving my betting system at the moment. The results suggest that my models are more accurate than the odds compilers' at predicting the number of goals, but less accurate at predicting the outcome of the match. So it seems clear that the mathematics by which I translate between goals and outcomes needs work. I'll report back on that in the future.
Since that is in the works, I'm taking it a bit slower on betting at the moment. However, one bet this week looks too good to pass up:
- West Ham to win: 27% versus 37%
Even aside from the mathematics, my sense as a football fan is that West Ham has a better chance that the odds compilers are giving them, so this seems like a good bet.
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