Mancini's Project: An Arsenal With Muscle

Changes at City

If you listen to the journalists, nothing much is changing at Manchester City. An Italian manager, like Mancini, always means catenaccio, ultra-defensive football. It is always cautious, striking only on the counter, never venturing forward in numbers. It means grinding out boring, 1-0 victories.

However, if you listen to those who watch City day in and day out — the fans — you'll hear a very different story. Mancini is trying something new. There is less emphasis on counter-attack. Instead, it is slow build-up. There are fewer crosses into the box. Instead, there is more link-up play through the middle.

Indeed, fans don't argue about whether or not Mancini is changing Manchester City's tactics. They argue about whether he should be doing so. Some argue, instead, that we should stick with the familiar: good ol' 4-4-2. Or if not that formation, then at least counter-attacking football. And why not? This English brand of football has served well the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea, and in recent times Tottenham against the best international competition.

Something v Nothing

It's never a fair fight, though, between something and nothing. Even if that something has its problems, we prefer the devil we know to the devil we don't.

Thus, before we can fairly cast judgement on Mancini's project, we need to have a clear idea in our heads of what that project is. But since Mancini has never really spelled it out for us, we are left to guess. So in the remainder of this post, I'll try to spell out my (uneducated) guess of what the future holds.

A Point of Reference

As someone once said to me, "Mancini loves his 4-2-3-1". Despite the dominance of this formation internationally, there is only one other top 5 team in the English Premier League that uses a 4-2-3-1 as its standard formation. So it is perhaps easiest to describe Mancini's tactics by looking at how they compare to the other team that plays the same formation: Arsenal.

As a quick refresher, the 4-2-3-1 system has the following parts: 4 defenders (two fullbacks on the wings and two centerbacks in the middle), 2 defensive midfielders, 3 attacking midfielders (two on the wings and one central), and 1 striker.

In both Manchester City and Arsenal's systems, there are 5 or 6 attacking players when in possession. The "3-1" players are always attacking, while half of the "4-2" players, the two centerbacks and one defensive midfielder, are always defending. The differences lie mostly how the fullbacks and the defensive midfielders are used during attacks.

In Arsenal's system, these four players take turns making attacking runs. In Manchester City's system, the defensive midfielders usually stay defending, but on the other hand, the fullbacks are usually more attacking. Micah Richards and Aleksandar Kolarov are more often marauding down the wings than they are sitting back.

Despite this minor difference, the two teams attack in roughly equal numbers: usually 5 or 6 players attacking and 4 or 5 players sitting back when in possession.

The similarities between the two systems do not stop at the formation though. Amongst the individual players, there are strong similarities.

Both teams are centered around a Spanish attacking midfielder known for his creative link-up play. Arsenal has Cesc Fabregas, while Manchester City has David Silva. While journalists have not yet begun to heap praise on Silva the way they way they do on Fabregas, his central importance to the team is common knowledge amongst fans. Silva was voted Etihad player of the month three times in a row this year. When City lost a match while Silva was injured, fans were quick to bemoan his absence. "There was no creativity. The team is lost without Silva," they said.

Both teams feature wide attacking players that attack by cutting inside or delivering passes rather than crosses into the box. For Arsenal, these are Nasri, Walcott, and Arshavin. For Manchester City, they are Tevez, Balotelli, and Adam Johnson. Both teams have pace (especially Walcott and Balotelli), but for neither team is that their primary attacking weapon.

Both teams play with a lone central striker who is tall and can head the ball well but is primarily known for having excellent technical ability, a silky touch, and scoring with both feet. These are Robin van Persie, for Arsenal, and Edin Dzeko, for Manchester City. Of course, Dzeko has not performed like van Persie so far in his eight starts in the English Premier League, but he demonstrated the same type of skill while at Wolfsburg.

Mancini's Defense

The differences between Arsenal and Manchester City are most apparent in defense. The core of Manchester City's defense — de Jong, Kompany, Lescott, and Hart — is clearly superior to Arsenal's — Song, Koscielny, Djourou, and Szczesny. And of course, it is certainly true that Mancini cares more about defense than Wenger. He expects more of his players to track back when not in possession in order to prevent the other side from scoring.

Of course, sending more players back does mean they have further to run when they gain possession, so it does in principle mean that the side is less attacking than otherwise. But note that this is less true when the team focuses on slow build-up rather than counter-attack, as Arsenal and Manchester City do. So in practice, it is not the case that an Arsenal-like offense cannot also have good defense.

An Arsenal With Muscle

An emphasis on defense is not the only difference, however. I would argue that Manchester City are a more muscular team in general. Wenger's players are called "butterflies", but clearly that description does not apply to Richards, Kompany, de Jong, Balotelli, and Dzeko.

As Gabriele Marcotti has reported, Mancini's training includes a strenuous strength training program designed to build muscle in his players. Clearly, his system will feature not only skillful link-up play but also players with the strength to fend off defenders, speed to break away, and fitness to relentlessly press for 90 minutes.

This "physicality" is the attribute most commonly used to describe English football. Indeed, the clear advantage in strength, speed, and fitness is my explanation for why English teams do so well in the UEFA champions league. Mancini seems to recognize this. The best team would not shun physicality for the tactical Italian approach but would rather have both.

My guess is that this is what Mancini hopes to achieve. He wants to wed the most progressive attacking approach in the English Premier League with the rugged physicality that gives every English team an edge in Europe. In short, he wants an Arsenal with muscle.

Patience

Perhaps it is natural that journalists would see Mancini's approach as being mostly defensive since that is the area where improvement becomes visible most quickly. Good defense requires proper organization, which a coach can quickly teach and drill into his players. Indeed, we have seen the same defensive turn-around more recently at West Brom under new coach, Roy Hodgson.

Offense seems to take more time to improve. It requires creativity, which cannot be drilled into players. And it requires an understanding between players, an intuition for what the other players will do, that can only be gained over many matches.

Manchester City have had little time to for that so far. Dzeko has only played eight Premier League matches. And very few of those have featured the same set of attacking players, due to injuries and suspensions.

Of course, Dzeko is also adjusting to a new league. And he is adjusting to new training methods. In particular, Mancini's strength training program is asking more of him than ever before. Silva had to go through a similar adjustment in coming to City this summer. As we saw, it took over 20 matches before he started to show the brilliance that fans are now familiar with.

Dzeko will need more time to adjust. And it will take time for Silva and Dzeko to develop a partnership anything like what Fabregas and van Persie have achieved.

Mancini's project is undoubtably ambitious. But he is on track this season to finish in the top 4. That should buy him time to continue its development. The team will need an offseason to train together and many matches with the same starting eleven running onto the pitch before they can become a cohesive unit capable of challenging the best.

But ultimately, I think that is what Mancini is trying to create at City. He is thinking not just in terms of winning league titles. He has a vision of a team that wins trophies in Europe. If that vision is anything like what I am imagining, then it is a vision too splendid to give up on quickly.