Lucky and Unlucky Teams in the EPL

Not only can you use mathematical models to predict the outcome of matches, you can also use them to look backward and ask "who should have won?"

Of course, the team that "should win" doesn't always do so, and thank God for that. The game would be nothing without the chance for an upset.

Nonetheless, this sort of analysis can tell us useful things.

There is all sorts of randomness that affects the outcome of a match. The decisions of the referee have been foremost amongst these in recent news. However, there are many other sources of randomness. As the season progresses, though, this sort of randomness tends to cancel out. After 30 matches, the average amount of luckiness or unluckiness that each team gets per game becomes close to zero.

Hence, if we look back and find that a team appears to have been consistently luckier or unluckier, then that is evidence that something else is going on. (Perhaps another variable that should be added to our model.)

With that in mind, here are the most lucky and unlucky teams so far this season:

Unlucky

1. Newcastle United: currently in 10th place but should be in 5th.
   
   
2. Wolverhampton Wanders: currently in 19th place but should be in 14th.
   
   
3. Birmingham City: currently in 17th place but should be in 13th.
   

Lucky

1. Tottenham Hotspur: currently in 5th place but should be in 10th.
   

Finding an explanation for these is left as an exercise for the reader.