Without doubt, Barcelona v Arsenal in the Champions League will be one of the most anticipated match ups this year. Negative Football is predicting a decisive win for Barcelona. Not only does Barcelona unquestionably have the best offense in the world, as we noted in our last post, they also have the best defense in the world. Arsenal is in the top 10 in both categories as well, but Barcelona has a substantial advantage in both defense and offense.
The primary threat on Arsenal's offense at the moment comes from Robin van Persie. The job of containing him will fall to Puyol, Pique, and Busquets on Barcelona. Of course, these competitors have faced each other before: in the world cup final. As you undoubtedly remember, Netherlands failed to score. Indeed, van Persie had only two shots, neither of which was on target.
Using the model discussed in our last post, we can predict the probabilities of a Barcelona win, draw, or loss. These are 51%, 21%, and 28%, respectively. The odds compilers have nearly the same predictions, with only a 5% shift from lose to draw. Certainly, these are nowhere near the numbers you'd get with, say, Manchester United versus Wigan, where the favorite would have an 80% chance of winning. But Barcelona are clearly the favorites by a substantial margin.
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