EPL Week 25 Bets

As in weeks before, my model gives slightly higher odds to a few of the long shots:

• Arsenal to lose to Everton: 13% versus 28%
  
  
• Sunderland to beat Chelsea: 18% versus 30%
  
  
• Man United to lose to Aston Villa: 9% versus 20%
  

In addition, these two matches look interesting:

• West Brom to lose to Wigan.
  
  The odds makers have this at 22%, whereas it is 36% in my model. I can't see why the odds makers would not see this as a close match. Perhaps they are reading more into the small differences in home and away records than I am.
  
  
• Bolton to lose to Wolves.
  
  The odds makers have this also at 22%, whereas it is 32% in my model. Actually, one model has it at only 28%, but 32% comes from the model that should be the most accurate.
  

My model also says Stoke have a better chance than expected, but given recent changes in Liverpool during the transfer window, I think it best to stay away from that one.