EPL Week 24-mid Bets

There are three matches being played in the middle of this week, each of which was postponed from earlier in the season. On two of them, I see some deviation between my models and the odds compilers:

• Blackpool to win or draw, versus Manchester United.
  
  Odds compilers have an MAU win at 75% versus 42% for me.
  
  
• Fulham to win, versus Liverpool.
  
  Odds compilers have a Fulham win at 17%, whereas I have it at 31%.
  

My sense of what is going through the odds compilers minds is their estimate of the current form of each of these teams. Manchester United just won big, while Blackpool lost. Liverpool seemed to have found confidence again under Dalglish, while Fulham just had a frustrating defeat.

My estimates, on the other hand, are based on the results of these teams over the season, with no special weight given to the last game. For example, Manchester United have 2 wins and 8 draws when playing away. Blackpool are capable of scoring goals. And though they concede many as well, Manchester United play more conservatively away (they play for draws, it seems). So at least from the data, a Manchester United win does not seem 75% certain.

It will be interesting to see the results over the next two days. The BPL vs MAU match is another of the sort that I did poorly on last weekend, so I will be especially interested to see if that run continues.