More on Mancini's Project

As I wrote once before, I have the impression that Roberto Mancini is in large part modeling his team on Arsenal. (His version though is an Arsenal with muscle.) Hence, my ears perked up in response to Mancini's recent quotes on certain Arsenal players.

Mancini was asked what player he would need to add to his team to win the English Premier League title. Mancini had just been discussing Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but Zlatan was not his answer. His answer was Cesc Fabregas.

While Man City and Arsenal play the same formation (4-2-3-1) and have attacking players with obvious similarities — Edin Dzeko is much like Robin van Persie, David Silva and Mario Balotelli are much like Samir Nasri and Theo Walcott — Man City has no one quite like Cesc Fabregas.

In my previous post, I compared David Silva to Cesc Fabregas. But as great as Silva is, Fabregas is at another level. In particular, Silva has much of the same creativity and ability to set up other players, but he is not the same scoring threat. Today, in the FA cup final, Mancini instead played Tevez in the Fabregas role. Clearly, Tevez has the same scoring ability (if not more), but he has not shown the same ability to set up other players. In short, no current Man City player is perfect for this position, the middle of the 3 in Mancini's 4-2-3-1.

The evidence suggests that finding a player for this position is Mancini's #1 priority this summer. Most of the top players linked with the club already — Kaka, Wesley Sneijder, Javier Pastore, and now Cesc Fabregas — play best in exactly this role. Of all these players, Cesc certainly has the advantage of being already adjusted both to the English league and to Mancini's formation. Perhaps that is why Mancini stated he would like Fabregas the most.

If things play out this way, then here is the lineup we might be looking at next fall:



It may seem odd that I have left out Tevez from this formation. This is for two reasons. First, he continues to look likely to leave this summer. Second, with Dzeko's obvious similarities to van Persie (including his aerial threat, which Tevez lacks), it seems likely that Mancini has him in mind to lead the line long term.

Others might question playing Balottelli routinely in a wide position. However, he showed today that he can be very effective in this role. He can run onto a diagonal ball over the defense as well as Theo Walcott or Valencia. He can hold up the ball for other players just as well. And he can even come inside and shoot as well as Nani or Nasri. For my money, Balotelli would perhaps be the most potent wide attacking threat in the league next year.

Indeed, I imagine that the four attacking players in this lineup could easily form the most potent attack in the league next season. If Dzeko returns to his Wolfsberg form, he is as dangerous as van Persie. Fabregas is probably the most dangerous central midfielder in the league today. As I just argued, Balotelli would likely be the most dangerous wide threat. And with Fabreagas able to provide creativity, Silva could easily be as prodigious a goal scorer next season as Samir Nasri was playing next to Fabregas this season.

To me, the two holding midfielders in this formation are without doubt the best in the league. I think few would doubt that de Jong is currently the best single holding midfielder. Yaya Toure is also accomplished at this role. But as we saw this season, Yaya is also an attacking threat. In fact, his run from a holding position scored the winning goal in the FA cup final today. This combination of attacking and solid-as-steel defending could not be matched.

The defense has been the primary strength this season, as City have the second best rated defense. Kompany, Hart, and Richards are all in contention for league best in their position. If there are any weaknesses here they are in Kompany's defensive partner, which has been both Kolo Toure and Joleon Lescott this year, and at left back, which has featured Pablo Zabaletta and Aleksandar Kolarov.

If I had to pick just one of those two positions to shore up this summer, like Gabriele Marcotti, I would take another central defender. At left back, we have both Zabaletta, who has delivered when needed this season, and Kolarov who has continue to improve defensively. Indeed, Kolarov's attacking threat would be extremely valuable (particularly in a 4-2-3-1) provided that he can deliver on defensive end. (Also keep in mind, that the best team in the world today, Barcelona, make do rotating a few different left backs.)

News reports suggest that this is what Mancini plans to do. The ones I have read suggested he plans to sign Ajax central defender Vertonghen. So I have included him in the lineup above.

Clearly, this defense, from Hart through Toure and de Jong, would be in the running for best in the league next season. In fact, one could easily see this defense as one of the best in the Champions League as well. Indeed, assuming Dzeko can return to form, one can easily see Man City with both the attacking threat and the defense needed to challenge in Europe.

Three Things I've Learned Playing Fantasy Football

One great thing about fantasy football is that it keeps you focused on what actually happens on the pitch (goals, assists, clean sheets) rather than overall impressions. It's not that impressions are irrelevant — they're not. But sometimes impressions are wrong. And by keeping you focused on what actually happened, fantasy football leaves you in a better place to spot wrong impressions.

Here are three wrong impressions I have spotted, based on experience playing fantasy football.

1. Hard working but unflashy players are often underrated. Examples: Dirk Kuyt and Andrei Arshavin.
   
   Both Kuyt and Arshavin get described as players that aren't good enough for the teams that they are on. Whenever I hear this, I get very annoyed because I know from experience that both players deliver points.
   
   Analyzing this is a bit tricky because players on better teams should provide more fantasy points (because those teams score more and have more clean sheets). One way to put things on the level though is to divide by the number of goals scored by the team.
   
   Specifically, let's look at the following: how many points does a player earn for each goal scored by the team. This is a measure of how important that player is to the team in scoring goals. (Recall that a player can get points either for goals or assists. Assists count for 2 points while goals count for 4-6 points, depending on position.)
   
   Here's what we discover. Over the last 15 weeks of the EPL season, Dirt Kuyt is #1 amongst Liverpool players in terms of fantasy points per goal in games he has played. He ranks higher than Gerrard, Suarez, Carroll, Meireles, you name it.
   
   You might complain that these stats are skewed by the fact that Kuyt scored a hat trick a few weeks ago. Okay, suppose we remove Kuyt's hat trick all together. Guess what? He's still #1.
   
   No one will be surprised to learn that the highest ranking Arsenal player according to this measure is Robin van Persie. He is a goal scoring machine. But who ranks #2? Is it Fabregas or Nasri or Walcott? Nope. It's Andrei Arshavin. In addition to the 3 goals he has scored when in the starting lineup, he also has 3 assists.
   
   Another surprise in these results occurs at Tottenham. Again, the #1 ranked player is easy to guess: Rafael van der Vaart. But #2 is Pavlyuchenko, another underrated player. He ranks ahead of Crouch, Bale, and Lennon. In fact, he delivers twice as many fantasy points per goal as Bale, when each is in the starting lineup.
   


2. Pundits are overly eager to declare careers over. Example: Frank Lampard.
   
   When a team is doing poorly, pundits seem overeager to declare the team in need of rebuilding. And it seems like the first thing they call for is removal of the older players who are stars of years past.
   
   The primary example of this is Frank Lampard. I have listened to Tommy Smyth call for Chelsea to be rebuilt and Lampard tossed out on more than one occasion. Meanwhile, I pick him for my fantasy team nearly every week.
   
   Why is that? It is because Lampard ranks #1 in fantasy points per goal amongst Chelsea players. In fact, he delivers nearly 75% more points per goal than Drogba who is apparently "in form" once again at this moment.
   
   With all due respect, Tommy, Lampard should not be tossed out when he is the highest contributing Chelsea player in attack. To do so would be ridiculous.
   
   Another player who gets similar treatment is Roma's Francisco Totti. Tommy says it's time for him to step aside.
   
   I can't say much to this since I don't play Serie A fantasy football, but it does seem that Totti has been contributing quite a lot this year. Indeed, he leads Roma in both goals and assists.
   


3. Torres and Drogba can play together.
   
   The pundits also tell me that Ancelotti needs to give up trying to play both Torres and Drogba. These two cannot play together, they say, and since Drogba is in form, he should play while Torres sits.
   
   Yet from playing fantasy football last week, one statistic stands out to me: Drogba, playing on the wing, assisted in both goals. No player in the last 15 games has had 3 assists in one game, and only 10 other players that start on a regular basis have managed 2 in one game. Those players include Leighton Baines, Nani, Giggs, Rooney, and Arshavin — all players that are very effective in supporting roles. Clearly, Drogba is not ineffective on the wing.
   
   Contrary to the pundits, I think Torres and Drogba are likely to both start for Chelsea in the remaining matches, including the match this weekend at Manchester United.
   

One final surprising thing I noticed from this measure of performance: Leighton Baines ranks #1 for Everton, ahead of both Tim Cahill and Louis Saha. That's pretty darn impressive for a fullback!